Is Senate Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer vulnerable in New York?
The polls tell us that he is.
Recent polling data reveals that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) holds a commanding double-digit lead over Senator Chuck Schumer in a hypothetical 2028 New York Democratic Senate primary. Multiple independent surveys, including those conducted by the Honan Strategy Group for the Jewish Voters Action Network and Data for Progress, consistently show AOC ahead by margins ranging from 18 to 21 points among likely Democratic voters
Key Poll Findings
- Honan Strategy Group/Jewish Voters Action Network (May 2025):
- AOC: 54%
- Schumer: 33%
- Margin: +21 points for AOC
- Among Jewish Democratic voters: AOC leads 45% to 33% (17% undecided)
- Sample: 1,136 likely Democratic voters in New York City
- Margin of error: ±2.89 percentage points1578
Yes, even among Jewish Democrats—a group long considered Schumer’s stronghold—AOC now leads by 12 points. Ouch!
- Data for Progress (March/April 2025):
Schumer, 74, is viewed as yesterday’s best while folks see AOC, 35, as tomorrow’s hope.
However, Democrats should be cautious about sending Schumer into retirement. He’s done a lot of good, has tremendous experience, and is not as out of touch as some think.
Nevertheless, repeated polling data suggest growing dissatisfaction within the Democratic base, so something has to change.
“AOC serves as the face of the Democratic Party for many Trump supporters who dislike national Democrats. They like to pillory her as ignorant and irresponsible,” per Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, who previously told Newsweek via email.
“At the same time, many Democrats embrace AOC as a worthy young successor to Bernie, someone who can play the role of progressive challenger in a Democratic nomination battle. Likely, AOC tops the charts because she attracts so much bipartisan attention. Ocasio-Cortez enjoys good branding, as symbolized by the fact both supporters and critics simply refer to her as AOC. No matter what Ocasio-Cortez does in the next presidential election, she’ll be hard to ignore.
“Notably, no politician has managed to seize the mantle as symbol of the mainstream Democratic Party, judging from this poll. Kamala Harris, despite having just served as the face of the Democrats in 2024, finds herself clustered with a handful of other politicians,” Voss said.
Political observers caution against underestimating AOC’s political talent and grassroots appeal. As one analyst noted, “AOC is a person who understands her base, who understands the leftist populist streak that runs through the party, she understands social media, she has a massive following… She should not be underestimated.”
My questions:
1. Will AOC’s progressiveness turn off a lot of middle-of-the-road Democrats and independents?
2. How many of MAGA’s disgruntled anti-establishment supporters will be wooed by AOC’s populist, blue-collar agenda?
3. Can AOC go to the negotiating table knowing the left won’t get everything they want (No one gets everything they want)
AOC will likely win Schumer’s seat if she wants it. However, whether she’ll be successful as the long-term face of the Democratic Party remains to be seen. Everything will hinge on the questions above.