The November 4, 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election represents a crucial turning point in the state’s history. Constitutional term limits prevent Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin from running for re-election which gives the upcoming election an opportunity for new leadership. The primary elections on June 17 will set the stage for an exciting race between party front-runners, former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger, a moderate Democrat, and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican. And the winner will be Virginia’s first female governor,
The election in 2025 is especially important because no other Republican governorship is at stake, and Democrats have a strong opportunity for a flip. Moreover, since Virginia is considered a purplish blue state, the upcoming election will serve as an important bellwether for how satisfied Americans are with the direction of the country.
Of note, since 1977 Virginia has elected governors from the party opposite to that of the sitting U.S. president, except for one occasion in 2013. Advantage: Spanberger.
The 2024 presidential election saw Kamala Harris triumph in Virginia by an impressive six percentage points, reinforcing the state’s progressive momentum since the last Republican presidential victory in 2004. With Democrats holding both U.S. Senate seats, there’s an undeniable energy and commitment to moderate, left-of-center policies. Advantage: Spanberger x 2
Spanberger burst onto the political scene when she ended the GOP’s 38-year reign in Virginia’s 7th congressional district after her 2018 election win against incumbent Representative Dave Brat. Her current momentum and intangible advantages work in her favor, and the polling shows her as the clear favorite.
And Sears, despite being a supporter of the MAGA movement, has wavered a bit and, accordingly, wasn’t chosen by the White House or the RNC to represent Trump during his address. So even if she gets Trump’s backing, it may be soft support at best because she’s not a Republican in Trump’s orbit. Advantage: Spanberger.
But the beauty of this election, from a strictly analytical viewpoint, is that Democrats can still lose if they take the GOP candidate too lightly or if the Trump Administration is favorable in November.
Prediction: Spanberger by 9 percent. The election outcome will largely depend on Trump’s standing with voters on November 4. A victory for Earle-Sears would deliver a tremendous boost to Republicans while dealing a devastating blow to Democrats, but numerous developments must transpire before such an upset becomes feasible.
Consider: Even if Earle-Sears loses by just 2 or 3 points, it would be a symbolic win for Republicans. Democrats, conversely, will find good reasons to look forward to the 2026 midterms if Spanberger wins by at least 7 points.