The combination of political, economic, and social factors leads to a growing number of tourists canceling their trips to the United States in 2025. Following Donald Trump’s reelection in 2024, foreign diplomacy changed, border control became more stringent, and his public speaking appeared hostile to minorities, foreign visitors, and LGBTQ folks. And recent developments, including Trump’s talk of annexing Canada, Panama, and Greenland (against the will of all three nations), are tarnishing the U.S.’s image as a travel-friendly destination.
Moreover, it’s important to consider how the Trump administration’s stricter border controls and federal hiring freeze are directly contributing to visa processing delays, which in turn are decreasing the number of inbound tourists. When you add to this mix the high-profile detention cases at U.S. borders, rising tariffs on key partners such as Canada, and the increased costs associated with a strong dollar, it becomes clear why these factors collectively lead to more tourism cancellations.
The largest group of international visitors to the U.S. comes from Canada, but Canadians have already notably decreased their travel to the U.S., with legal border crossings experiencing declines of up to 45%. Moreover, Air Canada has also reduced flight services to U.S. destinations like Las Vegas because passenger numbers have fallen, and Western European travelers are now rethinking their plans to visit the U.S. because of negative opinions about America’s political environment, along with escalating travel expenses.
According to a recent report by the reputable research firm Tourism Economics, there’s a significant shift in the outlook for inbound travel to the US. Instead of experiencing an anticipated growth of nearly 9%, projections now indicate a decline of 5.5% this year.
Overall, according to a recent Tourism Economics report released as part of Oxford Economics, the U.S. tourism sector is projected to lose up to $64 billion in 2025 due to reduced international and domestic travel. This includes a 5.1% decline in foreign arrivals and a 10.9% drop in visitor expenditures, amounting to an $18 billion loss for the year.
This change underscores the importance of treating your allies with respect, even if they don’t always agree with you.
And yes, sustained price increases will lead to a decline in domestic U.S. tourism because Americans will prefer more affordable local vacations instead of traveling to other destinations in the United States.
Layoffs
The travel industry is already experiencing layoffs in 2025, which will impact multiple major companies and sectors. Companies are reducing staff because of the expected shortfall in tourism, as well as budget reductions, technological advancements, and widespread economic difficulties.
With reduced revenue in accommodations, transportation, food services, and retail sectors, companies may continue to downsize their workforce.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION: It won’t be pretty. I’ll write a follow-up to this article by the end of the year. Hopefully, the travel industry won’t get hit as badly as I think.