So President Trump is saying gas and grocery prices are down but I’m not seeing it, are you? If not, it’s because his recent claims that gas and grocery prices are “down” are misleading. While some specific prices have decreased over the past year-especially for oil and select grocery items -the overall trend for both gas and groceries IS that prices remain elevated or are still rising, though at a slower pace than during peak inflation years.
Gas Prices
Gasoline prices across the nation stand at around $3.13–$3.18 per gallon which remains close to the cost when President Trump started his term in January 2025 (then $3.10–$3.14). There is no evidence to support the assertion that gas prices have fallen to $1.98 per gallon.
Mississippi holds the lowest state average gas price at approximately $2.66 while the lowest recorded price at a single station reached $2.19 per gallon in Texas. The current gas price decline from roughly $3.64 to $3.15 represents a year-over-year change instead of a reduction since President Trump began his term. The drop in oil prices from $79 to $59 per barrel between May 2024 and May 2025 has led to potential shifts in gas prices yet has only minimally affected consumer prices until now.
Grocery Prices
Overall grocery prices are not falling. The Consumer Price Index indicates that grocery prices increased between 0.4% and 0.5% from February to March 2025 while they climbed 2.4% to 2.5% compared to the previous year.
Although fresh vegetables prices declined in March by 1.1% and February by 1.7%, prices for core food items like beef and poultry rose. And last month, egg prices experienced a 5.9% increase and reached a total increase of over 60% when compared to the same month last year. So grocery prices continue to rise yet their growth rate has slowed compared to the peak inflation years of 2022 and 2023.
And although certain grocery items have reduced in price, the average household grocery bill remains above last year’s level.
What’s Actually Happening?
The rate of inflation has decreased so prices are increasing at a slower pace but they still continue to rise. Instead, prices are rising more slowly. Price drops have occurred in some products such as oil and certain produce items but these remain unusual exceptions rather than general trends. And guess what? Food prices will continue to face upward pressure from tariffs and supply chain problems going forward.
Claims that both are broadly “down” are misleading. The reality is more nuanced: inflation is lower, but price levels remain high or are still increasing for most essentials. And expect prices to continue to rise due to the tariffs and mass deportation of undocumented immigrants who help keep prices to minimum.