Warning to Democrats: Liberal New York isn’t as liberal as it used to be. Will it become a battleground state soon?
In the 2024 Presidential Election, some appear to have overlooked Kamala Harris’ 12 ½ point win over Donald Trump because the Democrat won by double-digits as expected. But let’s rewind to the previous presidential elections. In 2020, Democrat candidate Joe Biden carried the state over Trump by 23 percentage points, which was roughly the same result as four years prior when Hillary Clinton faced Trump. However, Democrat candidate Barack Obama won New York by a whopping 28 percentage points in 2012. The Democrat presidential candidate, in 12 years, went from a 28-point cushion to just 12 ½ points. One could argue that the same thing in reverse is happening in Texas, and we’ll address that in another article.
One of the most pressing issues for Democrats right now is that Republicans, in 2022, successfully flipped four congressional seats from Democratic control. This shift has played a crucial role in granting House Republicans the majority in Washington, DC. And that’s something that’s not happening in Texas.
Meanwhile, a new poll shows that Republicans may seize an opportunity in New York because Governor Kathy Hochul faces low popularity during her anticipated 2026 reelection campaign. Current data shows political trends moving toward change, which gives Republicans the chance to leverage voter discontent.
Consider this: In 2022, Republican candidate for governor Rep. Lee Zeldin came remarkably close to defeating Hochul, with the final vote count at a narrow 47 percent to 53 percent. This near victory is a clear indication of shifting political tides. With Hochul’s approval ratings now at an all-time low, Republicans are poised and ready for a rematch that could very well tip the scales in their favor.
Also, a GrayHouse poll found that just 36 percent approve of New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s performance and 55 percent disapprove.
Even President Trump boasts a higher approval rating than Hochul in the predominantly Democratic state! With 43 percent of people approving and 56 percent disapproving.
‘The rightward shift of New York, in particular New York City, has been happening since 2006,’ GrayHouse pollster Landon Wall told the Daily Mail.
‘Kathy Hochul’s numbers have imploded,’ a New York Republican political operative told the Daily Mail, pointing to the devastating approval numbers for her in a state that is primarily comprised of Democrats.
Another poll shows that rising Republican star Elise Stefanik, 40, is within striking distance of Hochul if she decides to run a campaign for governor.
With forty-six percent of voters supporting Hohul and Stefanik capturing 40 percent, there’s a significant opportunity for Stefanik to make a compelling case. The fact that fourteen percent of voters remain undecided presents an even greater chance for her to sway opinions. Given that she hasn’t even announced her campaign yet, this is a promising foundation from which she can launch a successful bid and potentially turn the tide in her favor.
Near-term prediction for NY governor:
Kathy Hochul will win re-election or be defeated by a moderate Republican a la Larry Hogan, John Kasich, or Chris Sununu. The Empire State won’t have a MAGA governor anytime soon.
Let’s not forget that the very liberal state of Maryland had a centrist Republican governor from 2015 to 2023, Larry Hogan. And keep in mind that a Democrat, Andy Beshear, governs red Kentucky.
It’s quite reasonable to see states elect moderate governors whose party affiliation doesn’t perfectly align with the state’s overall political leanings. This often happens because moderate voters often strike a chord with moderate and independent voters when the far left and far right are simultaneously unpopular.
Near-term prediction for the 2028 presidential race:
The Democrat candidate will win New York. The biggest question is ‘by how much?’ Democrats should aim to win here by at least 15 percentage points; anything less could be a pyrrhic victory.
The House
New York Democrats need to find a way to regain those four critical House seats that were recently flipped. And to do that, they must get independents and conservative Democrats back on their side. While New York won’t turn red anytime soon, Democrats risk being forced to spend more time, money, and resources there that could have been used on true battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Michigan.
New York isn’t going fully red anytime soon, but Republicans could see a lot more success than usual there if Democrats don’t turn things around soon.