Sex workers, particularly those in industries like stripping and brothel management, have long been considered unconventional yet insightful indicators of economic health. Their experiences often reflect broader trends in consumer spending, especially discretionary income, which tends to shrink during economic downturns.
Why? It’s probably because their industry is hugely unnecessary. Unlike dentists, school teachers, and police, we can survive without sex workers the same way we can survive without vacations. As a result, luxury industries that are totally dependent on discretionary spending, like sex work/stripping, are among the first endeavors to be affected during tough economic times.
Here’s how sex workers are identifying signs of a potential slowdown:
Key Observations from Sex Workers
- Declining Earnings: Many sex workers report significant drops in income. For example, dancers like Vulgar Vanity have noted that their earnings have fallen dramatically compared to previous years, with fewer high-paying nights and reduced tips from regular patrons.
Similarly, brothel managers like Catherine De Noire observe fewer clients and reduced spending on premium services, with some top earners seeing their income halved compared to the same period last year. - Reduced Discretionary Spending: The “Stripper Index,” a term used to describe the correlation between sex workers’ earnings and economic cycles, highlights how consumers cut back on non-essential expenses like adult entertainment during financial strain. This trend was also evident before the 2008 Great Recession, when sex industry revenues declined years before the broader economy showed signs of collapse.
- Increased Workload for Less Pay: Many sex workers report having to work harder to maintain their income. For instance, some rely more heavily on marketing or diversify into other forms of sex work to make ends meet. However, market saturation, particularly in online platforms, has made it harder for newer or less-established workers to earn a sustainable income.
- Broader Economic Anxiety: Anecdotal evidence suggests that clients are visiting less frequently, negotiating lower rates, or opting for cheaper services due to concerns about rising costs for necessities like food and energy. This behavior aligns with traditional economic patterns where discretionary spending is the first to be cut during financial uncertainty.
Historical Context
Sex workers’ experiences have often foreshadowed recessions:
- Before the 2008 financial crisis, the underground commercial sex economy contracted in several U.S. cities as consumer spending tightened.
- Similar trends were observed during the early 2000s dot-com bubble burst and the pandemic-induced recession, where both in-person and online sex work saw declines in profitability.
Limitations and Perspectives
While these observations provide valuable anecdotal insights, some economists caution against relying solely on unconventional indicators like the “Stripper Index.” They argue that such metrics may be coincidental rather than leading indicators and prefer traditional data sources like corporate profits and stock market performance. However, the consistent patterns observed in the sex industry suggest it remains a useful supplementary tool for understanding economic trends.
In summary, declining earnings among sex workers and reduced discretionary spending are raising concerns about an impending recession. These trends highlight how shifts in consumer behavior within niche industries can serve as early warning signs for broader economic challenges.